Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Great Crash of 1929, and Its Little Brothers

 

"Economic history, even at its most violent, has a much less exciting tempo than military or even political history.  Days are rarely important.  All of the autumn of 1929 was a terrible time, and all of that year was one of climax.  With the invaluable aid of hindsight it is possible to see that for many previous months the stage was being set for the final disaster.

The great crash was the counterpart of the insane speculation in common stocks in 1927, 1928, and especially in the summer of 1929 that preceded it. The sequence was in the classic manner of the pure speculative episode.

Prices first went up because of good earnings. Then they took leave of reality. The market was taken over by people for whom the only important fact was that prices were going up.  Their buying then put up the prices but with the certainty that when the supply of such speculators ran out, as eventually it would, the upward movement would come to an end and prices would collapse in the rush to realize and get out.

In a market like that of 1929, there are three possible reasons why people buy stocks. One is for the old-fashioned purpose of sharing in the current income of an enterprise.

A second and far larger group of people were buying stocks because they had heard that the stock market was a place where people could get rich, and they were righteously persuaded that their right to be rich was as good as the next person.

Finally, stocks were being bought by those who knew that a boom was on but who intended to get out-or even, at a high level of professionalism, to go short- before the crash came. As 1929 wore along, it was this group that became increasingly nervous.

The market was making phenomenal advances; one couldn't get out while there were still such gains to be made. But whenever there was upsetting news, the market dropped sharply on large volume. Some were getting out.

We are now hearing from the banks and the Federal Reserve that financial genius, manifested through monetary policy, will be our salvation.  High interest rates, tight money, and the resulting recession will end inflation.  We need to be as skeptical now as people learned they should have been then. 

I hope that no one will think me unkind to those who believe that monetary witchcraft will protect us from painful economic consequences.  One seeks, indeed, to save these very good men from the possibly drastic consequences of their own illusions."

John Kenneth Galbraith, Congressional Testimony: Can It Happen Again?, October 29, 1979+

"As of February 2026, after 12 quarters of selling, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is holding a record cash pile of $382 billion.  This liquidity is primarily parked in short-term U.S. Treasury bills.  Cash and equivalents now account for over 30% of Berkshire's total assets."

Ask ChatGPT,  Hey Snapperhead, Has Buffet raised his BH cash allocation?


A low cost S&P stock index fund seems to be a decent place for investment over a LONG TERM 20+years time horizon.  It has some drawbacks, especially over shorter time horizons. 

Every investment contains some element of risk.  And when considering risk, there is power in having a diversified portfolio of investments.  How to achieve diversification suited for one's needs is a fit subject to discuss with a professional, with the understanding that not all 'professionals' are equally competent and fiduciary.

As Walter Bagehot said, 'Life is a school of probabilities.'  

Yo, sound the bell, school's in.  Can't touch this. 

Stocks managed to rally back today, as I suggested might happen.

Bessent can't have his Prince delivering the State of the Union address tonight without bragging rights on the Dow.   Even Hot Lips Leavitt couldn't put a positive spin on a market slump.  She'll most likely get some practice with this as the year moves along. 

Gold and silver also gave it up early as expected, it being a Comex futures March contract option expiration and all.  But they bounced back nicely which is something a little new.

VIX is holding a littler higher these days, skipping along on the EMA 20.

The Dollar bounced up just a little. 

So let's see what Donald says to further baffle the world tonight.  

Sorry, I won't be watching.  I have some episodes of Knight of the Seven Kingdoms to watch.  I still am leery of HBO after they carelessly shoved the final episodes of Game of Thrones out the door.    

I read the Tales of Dunk and Egg books by Martin and I liked them very much.  I stopped watching House of the Dragon because I read that book too.  

If I wanted to be bored and disappointed I would watch the State of the Union tonight.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - War Pigs

 

"Every war when it comes, or before it comes, is represented not as a war but as an act of self-defense against a homicidal maniac. All the war-propaganda, all the screaming and lies and hatred, comes invariably from people who are not fighting. War against a foreign country only happens when the moneyed classes think they are going to profit from it."

George Orwell, Experientia Docet, The New Statesman, August 1937

"In all these instances the large multinational bankers were actively supporting both sides. It is a shocking fact that both British and American banks continued to do business with the Nazis even after the War was well underway, even as Germany was invading Europe and bombing London."

BBC, Banking with Hitler, 1998

"The more power a government has the more it can act arbitrarily according to the whims and desires of the elite, and the more it will make war on others and murder its foreign and domestic subjects. It simply waits for an excuse, an event of some sort, an assassination, a massacre in a neighboring country, an attempted coup, a famine, or a natural disaster, to justify the beginning of murder en masse."

R. J. Rummel, Genocide and Mass Murder Since 1900, 1994

“A clique of US industrialists is hell-bent to bring a fascist state to supplant our democratic government and is working closely with the fascist regime in Germany and Italy.  I have had plenty of opportunity in my post in Berlin to witness how close some of our American ruling families are to the Nazi regime.  Certain American industrialists had a great deal to do with bringing fascist regimes into being in both Germany and Italy.  They extended aid to help Fascism occupy the seat of power, and they are helping to keep it there.”

William E. Dodd, US Amabassador to Germany, 1933

"You made this monster, and as long as things were going well you gave him whatever he wanted. You turned Germany over to this arch-criminal, you swore allegiance to him by every incredible oath he chose to put before you. And so you made yourselves into the Mamelukes of a man who carries on his head responsibility for a hundred thousand murders and who is the cause of the sorrow and the object of the curses of the whole of the world."

Friedrich Reck-Malleczewen, Diary of a Man in Despair, 1947

"The present war crisis is something we have made entirely for and by ourselves. There is in reality not the slightest logical reason for war, and yet the whole world is plunging headlong into frightful destruction, and doing so with the purpose of avoiding war and preserving peace! This is a true war-madness, an illness of the mind and the spirit that is spreading with a furious and subtle contagion all over the world."

Thomas Merton, The Root of War, The Catholic Worker, October 1961


There will be Comex March Futures Option Expiration for the Precious Metals tomorrow. 

Gold and silver put in solid rallies today.  

Stocks slumped but took a little bounce at the close.

VIX crept up a little.

Uncle Buck chopped around and ended little changed from Friday.

Trump will be giving his 'State of the Union' speech tomorrow.

I will be shocked if Bessent and the Boys let stocks flounder into his Prince's big moment.

Most global traders are watching the events in the Middle East carefully.

I have no idea what the US mainstream media is saying because I stopped watching all of them over a year ago.  They are stenographers to power.

Attacking Iran will be one of the biggest tactical blunders since Hitler moved against Russia, unless it is a another 'show piece' attack to placate Bibi.

Retail sales are signaling that the markets are being handed off to mom and pop, which is generally a sign of a bubble in its late stages.  

So we'll be more watchful for a market break from now into March.

As you may recall 

Bessent managed to avert a reckoning last year.  But the economy continues to unravel under his Administration.

They don't care.  They are lining their own pockets in the manner of true oligarchs, and the public be damned. 

The Republican failure to do their jobs as the Congressional majority is appalling, an historic disgrace.

Not sure the corporate Democrats would be all that better at the core of it.  They talk prettier, but at the end of the day are as much as in the pockets of the plutocrats as the rest.

Power attracts the corruptible.  Meaningful reform will be required for any sustainable recovery. 

We had about 16" of snow overnight, but we never lost power, and the winds were not destructive.  The main power of the storm was more concentrated along the coast, and we are about 45 miles inland.  

I'm knackered.  We cleared the driveway and my son and I helped a couple of neighbors who need it.  

By the grace of God we are safe and happy and warm.  What more could we ask for? 

Have a pleasant evening. 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Weep For Yourselves and Your Children

 

"O Jerusalem, Jerusalem, you who murder the prophets, and stone those whom God sends to you. As you have willed it, so your house is now yours — but is made desolate.”

Luke 13:34-35

Shout loudly, without holding back.
Lift up your voice like a trumpet.
Proclaim to my people their wicked deeds,
   to the house of Jacob their sins.
Yet they search for me day after day
   in their desire to know my ways,
   as if they are a nation that adheres to righteousness
   and has not abandoned the law of their God.
They request that I make righteous judgments,
   and they long to be near God.
They ask, “Why should we fast
   when you do not even notice?
Why should we mortify ourselves
   when you pay no heed?”
The truth is that on your fast days
   you serve your own interests
   and oppress all your workers.
Your fasting only leads to quarrels and fights
   and lashing out with vicious blows.
Such fasting as you currently practice
   will not make your voice heard on high.
Is this the type of fast that pleases me,
   a day for a man to humble himself,
   to bow his head like a reed
   and lie in sackcloth and ashes?
Is this what you call a fast,
   a day acceptable to the Lord?
This rather is the type of fast that I wish:
   to loosen the fetters of injustice,
   to undo the thongs of the yoke,
   to set free those who are oppressed
and to break every yoke,
   to share your bread with the hungry
and to offer shelter to the homeless poor,
   to clothe the naked when you behold them
   and not turn your back on your own kin.
Then your light will break forth like the dawn,
   and your wound will quickly be healed;
   your righteousness will go before you,
   and the glory of the Lord will be your rear guard.
Then, when you call, the Lord will answer;
   you will cry out for help,
   and he will say, “Here I am.”
If you cease to tolerate the yoke of oppression,
   the pointing of fingers and malicious words,
   if you offer your food to the hungry
   and satisfy the needs of the afflicted,
   then your light will rise in the darkness,
   and your night will become like midday.

Isaiah 58:1-10

“Daughters of Jerusalem, do not weep for me. Weep for yourselves and your children."

Luke 23:28


Stocks rallied and went out near the highs. 

Gold and silver rallied sharply, and went out near the highs.

The Dollar fell a little away from the 98 handle.

VIX, of course, fell.    Our hypocrisy knows no bounds.

Bitcoin is holding a level, and I think winding up for a move.  Whether higher or lower it is hard to tell.

If stocks break badly, Bitcoin is to be eviscerated.  

Perhaps cooler heads will prevail at the last.

It is hard to see the truth through the blizzard of lies.

Speaking of blizzards, it appears there is a nor'easter coming up the coast that may hit the northeastern US with high winds and drifting snow.   

The neo-cons, and chickenhawks, zionist Christians and people maddened with their moldering delusions of glory, are beating the drums of war, seeking for a judgement from God.

If judgement comes, you proud and greedy and lawless, weep for yourselves and your children.

Have a pleasant weekend. 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Beast Rising

 

"God will send them a deceiving power so that they may believe the lie, that all will be condemned who have not believed the truth but have taken pleasure in their lawlessness."

2 Thessalonians 2:3-12

"Once a certain class of people has been placed by the temporal and spiritual authorities outside the ranks of those whose life has value, then nothing comes more naturally to men than murder. As soon as men know they that they can kill without fear of punishment or blame, they kill; or at least they encourage killers with approving smiles."

Simone Weil, Gravity and Grace, 1947

"Satan has been in the Heaven of Heavens and in the abyss of Hell, and surveyed all that lies between them, and in that whole immensity has found only one thing that interests Satan. Satan’s monomaniac concern with himself and his supposed rights and wrongs is a necessity of the Satanic predicament. He has wished to ‘be himself’, and to be in himself and for himself, and his wish has been granted. The Hell he carries with him is, in one sense, a Hell of infinite boredom."

C. S. Lewis, A Preface to Paradise Lost, 1942

"Great and sustained destruction requires great ambition. It must be conceived as the means toward achieving a new order, and although the idea behind that new order may be criminal and objectively very stupid, it must also be compellingly simple and at the same time absolute.  The ideology of genocide is all of those things.”

Philip Gourevitch, Tomorrow We Will Be Killed, 1998

“Every idol, however exalted, turns out, in the long run, to be a Moloch, hungry for human sacrifice.”

Aldous Huxley, The Devils of Loudon, 1952

"Those who have faith had better keep in the state of grace, and those who have neither had better find out what they mean, for in the coming age there will be only one way to stop your trembling knees, and that will be to get down on them and pray.  The most important problem in the world today is your soul, for that is what the struggle is about."

Fulton J. Sheen, The Day of the Beast, 1947


You have accepted things, things that your father and mother could not even have imagined. 

Stocks were dodgy again today.

I think it will continue to be like this for some time.

The market wants to revalue lower, but Trump and Bessent see it as an important symbol of their administration.

This is a recipe for a bone-crunching correction.

Gold and silver bounced.

There will be an option expiration on Friday.

The US State of the Union meeting will be next Tuesday.

This will weigh heavily on all those things that the administration can control, for now.

An attack in force on Iran will likely be viewed in retrospect as a similar poor decision as Operation Barbarossa.

The thought processes in both are strikingly similar. 

Have a pleasant evening.